Dear Phil
Thank you for your invitation in the Newton News to share my views, as your constituent, on the way forward with Brexit.
In my opinion, the process has been fraught with problems from the start due to the Prime Minister’s weak position stemming from (a) parliament being dominated by pro-remainers seeking to obstruct the process at every stage, (b) not having an overall majority, (c) having a leader of the opposition putting party politics before the interests of the country.
Like it or not, David Cameron was elected on a promise to deliver a once and for all referendum on membership of the EU, and he kept his promise.
Like it or not, the country voted in favour of leaving the EU.
It was clearly articulated that this would take the UK out of the control of EU courts and EU regulations, and that freedom of movement to/from the UK would be taken into the control of the UK, and that we would stop paying into the EU pot of funds. It was envisaged that we would aim to secure arrangements for mutual agreements on security, defence, trade etc which were of mutual interest.
The EU was never in favour of the UK leaving it’s control. The figures can be worked out in different ways, but what is indisputable is that we are one of the biggest contributors, and a big net contributor, essentially subsidising other countries and paying for the central bureaucracy in Brussels and elsewhere in locations entirely outside of the UK. The EU has understandably done all it can to thwart Brexit or, failing that, have the UK leave in name only.
The government has taken too soft a line with the EU, but it has had to do so because of the factors I outlined earlier, most notably unhelpful interference from parliament totally undermining its negotiating strength. I regret that Mrs May was over complacent, fought such a poor election campaign and failed to reach the overall majority the country desperately needed for a strong Brexit process.
Where are we now?
– Legislation in place for the UK to leave the EU in circa 50 days. Either we extend article 50 or we leave on WTO trading terms.
– If we extend article 50, we prolong the uncertainty, which is bad for the economy and bad for business, and it fails to deliver the Brexit voted for by the people and pledged to be delivered by both major parties, most notably the government.
– The EU will not budge significantly from its position unless it has to.
– A General Election would delay the process unacceptably, and, if it won, a Labour government would almost certainly aim for a Brexit in name only, which would ride roughshod over the referendum result, or it could well seek to thwart Brexit altogether with another referendum, quite probably forced to do so by liberal partners in a likely hung parliament.
– A second referendum would make a mockery of the first one and seriously undermine the integrity of politics in the UK.
As I see it, we should be telling the EU we’re leaving under Article 50, as it stands. If they want a deal, we listen. If not, we leave on WTO terms, and we prepare for a no deal Brexit. There is no good reason the UK cannot thrive outside the EU. There will be teething troubles and we may be worse off financially, but we are a rich country in world terms, and we still will be after a no deal Brexit. A deal would be preferable, but better to leave without one than to remain. It’s not just about economics.
The main problem with a no deal Brexit is pro remain politicians telling everyone how disastrous it will be outside the EU, and markets depend heavily on confidence. They also depend on certainty and stability, and what we really need now is certainty, so that we can move towards stability.
Corbyn’s infantile insistence on not talking to the PM unless she rules out a no deal Brexit is an absolute disgrace and totally at odds with the best interests of the UK, in my view.
Meanwhile, the PM’s ‘deal’ does appear to me to be worth persevering with to pick out the unacceptable parts, and going back to the EU for amendments, on the basis that if they don’t move, it’s a no deal Brexit in March. There needs to be fair compromise, and politicians such as yourself need to stand up and be counted, even if it means going against the official party line.
Those are my thoughts. I hope they help!
Regards
John Snowball